August: Normal Temperatures, But More Rain? -

August: Normal Temperatures, But More Rain?

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August Temperature Trends August Temperature Trends
August Precipitation Trends August Precipitation Trends

I'm not the biggest fan of long-term forecasts, as the science just does not support reliable accuracy in many instances.  That's a discussion for another day...

That said, the NOAA/National Weather Service has released their monthly, long-term forecast update.  It shows an August that could look like the past few days...and a warmer and drier winter for us.

The unusual weather of the early summer this year does not necessarily mean anything weather-wise six months from now.  Weather patterns, especially long-term, can be very fickle!  Ask again in November about what we can expect this winter.

More believable: the August forecast is for above-normal rain and near-normal temperatures. Which means the weather of the past few days may be an indication of what's to come.

That's no real surprise.  The lower atmospheric moisture that is the fuel for those late-day storms is in place; you can thank the rain from the past two months for that!  The only thing that can clear that moisture out would be a strong push of dry air behind a cold front.  Cold fronts that can blast clear through the Carolinas are very rare this time of year.

So, assuming we stay in a relatively "normal" August weather pattern, our temperatures would be typical...but those late-day thunderstorm chances will not go away anytime soon.  And there's enough moisture for those storms to produce locally heavy rain, increasing the odds of a wetter than average month.

Let's hope the Tropics don't get too active...that could change everything!

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