Average of the polls: Here’s where the numbers are moving in the Biden-Trump race

National

(Getty)

(NEXSTAR) – Polling methodology has changed (and theoretically improved) from four years ago, but that hasn’t removed the uncertainty about how well the final polling this year will match results, particularly in a climate of increased mail-in voting and turnout uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Joe Biden has retained a relatively stable national polling lead for months, but several dynamics are at play that could swing polling. Here’s a brief summary:

  • According to Real Clear Politics’ polling average, Biden’s lead has slightly increased over the past week, stretching to 7.1 percent lead on average as of Wednesday. This is within a consistent range for the summer, but notably, Biden now stands at over 50 percent of the potential electorate, meaning he would likely win the popular vote without adding any of the seven percent of respondents that remain undecided.
  • FiveThirtyEight’s election simulator similarly shows the odds edging toward Biden this week, with 77 out of 100 possible scenarios favoring Biden in their latest modeling. Last week that number was 76.
  • The New York Time’s Upshot project offers some optimism for both sides. In recent postings, NYT staff suggest a repeat of state-level polling inaccuracies in Trump’s favor at the same size as 2016 could send the president back to the Oval Office. However, the same data reveals that Biden leading in most key swing states, even suggesting Georgia and Iowa are in play for the former VP.
  • Many see the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg as the most likely development to disrupt the relative stability of the polling averages. The death of the 87-year-old last week, and the resulting Supreme Court battle, will not be fully reflected for a few more weeks and a hurried confirmation fight could bring poll instability all the way up to election day.
  • It’s not at all clear how the Republican push to fill the seat will move the electorate. Republicans have signaled that they believe filling the seat could energize the base and improve turnout. At the same time, the Democratic fundraising platform ActBlue has reported record donations (well over $100 million) since RBG’s death, signaling plenty of energy on the other side of the electorate.

President Trump is expected to nominate his SCOTUS pick this Saturday, setting off the formal confirmation fight and injecting a new plotline that could significantly sway the polls and perhaps even the election.

Copyright 2020 Nexstar Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Mascot Challenge
High School RedZone
Star of the Week
Black and Blue Kickoff Live
Pro Football Challenge
Carolina Eats Contest
Find A Job
Greenville Triumph Game
wspa news app free for download choose your store below
download the wspa news app from the apple app store
download the wspa news app from the google play store

Trending Stories