Tracking Dorian: Possible scenarios and Lowcountry impacts

State News

CHARLESTON, S.C. (WCBD) – All eyes are on Hurricane Dorian and where it will go after landfall. Right now, the focus is on south and central Florida through early next week, but where does the storm go after that?

We know the storm has to go somewhere – typically they go north – but the big question is when does that northern turn happen and how quickly does it happen?

“We’re able to outline three distinct scenarios with Dorian’s future late next week,” said Storm Team 2 meteorologist Josh Mathers. “These scenarios will determine any impacts to the Lowcountry.”

Each of these scenarios has an equal chance of occurring right now, but things will become clearer over the weekend.

SCENARIO 1

This scenario is a lower impact to South Carolina. It would take Dorian across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico and up into the Florida panhandle. We would see some rain and a gusty breeze.

SCENARIO 2

This scenario takes the storm right up the Florida peninsula and into south Georgia and then into the Lowcountry. That would be a moderate impact tract. We would see heavy rain, gusty winds and the threat for isolated tornadoes. We would also have the risk for coastal flooding. As long as the storm is to our south or west, we’re going to see onshore winds.

SCENARIO 3

This scenario would be the highest impact to the state and the worst case. The storm would slow before moving far inland in Florida and then turn north and either parallel the coast or come back into the coast somewhere in the Carolinas. While we’re not saying that is going to happen, we can’t take that off the table right now because we are still so far away.

The main focus for the next five days needs to be on south and central Florida, and then our impacts and the scenarios are going to become a little clearer.

“The goal is hopefully we can start eliminating some of these scenarios over the weekend and early next week – that way be the time get to Monday, Tuesday we have a good solid idea of where this storm is going to go,” said Marthers.

Bottom line: Enjoy your weekend and keep tabs on what’s going on. Monday is the day to start paying close attention because that is when we will have a much better idea of where this storm goes after landfall and on its trek either into the Gulf, into Georgia or up the coast.

HURRICANE CENTRAL | Track the tropics on the our Storm Team 7 hurricane page.

Copyright 2019 Nexstar Broadcasting, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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